Today's archive looks back at my cover story in the PWTorch Newsletter #605 ten years ago this week. It looked at the state of WWE business without WCW as a competitor, and how Raw ratings had dropped even without WCW as competition on TNT - from a 6.1 to a 5.4 one year apart. It looked at the drop of Smackdown to a 3.7 rating - nearly double the current average rating for Smackdown. It was part of a downturn in business, but WWE was still drawing huge ratings and huge numbers overall. But with the Steve Austin heel turn not sparking business and other signs of WWE cooling off as a product, this looks at the possibility of proper usage of the WCW brand to help WWE experience another surge in business.

Of course, we know what happened. WWE botched getting much of anything out of the WCW brand acquisition from an immediately business standpoint (the library has been great for them over time, though). There wasn't much roster-wise to exploit and the brand image was badly damaged since it was a lousy produce the last few years and had a rep for being the losing company, so the criticism of WWE for not taking a so-called can't-miss opportunity and blowing is, well, overblown in my opinion. But that's another subject for another day - including upcoming archive articles here at WadeKeller.com. (Don't forget that you can read hundreds of back issues featuring articles such as this by becoming a VIP member: www.pwtorch.com/govip.)

HEADLINE: New WCW relaunch could determine fate of WWF
SUBHEADLINE: WWF-WCW dream matches may be long-term key to next big surge in business for WWF
ISSUE #605 - COVER DATED APR. 21, 2001
By Wade Keller, Torch editor

The WWF's momentum has slowed, and the disappearance of WCW from the marketplace hasn't dramatically helped its cause. Without competition to drive the creative team to innovate and stay a step ahead, will the WWF begin to stagnate? The signs are there that the masses aren't as enthralled with the WWF as they once were.

The Apr. 12 Smackdown last week drew a 3.7 rating, the lowest of the year and one of the lowest ever. One year ago, the Apr. 13, 2000 Smackdown drew a 4.7 rating. The WWF drew the 4.7 rating a year ago despite a relative glut of choices for wrestling fans on television. WCW Nitro, WCW Thunder, and ECW on TNN added five potential viewing hours for wrestling fans.

Now, with only Raw as the other national show, the WWF is slipping. Last week's Smackdown was lower than typical (viewership was down across the board last Thursday), since the previous week's Smackdown drew a solid 4.3 rating, but that's still below the 4.6 it drew that same week one year ago.

Even more telling is that the rating for Raw one year ago (Apr. 10, 2000) was 6.1. Last week Raw drew a 5.4. Not a drastic drop, but last year Raw shared the wrestling audience for an hour with Nitro, which drew a 3.1 (2.6 head-to-head with Raw's first hour).

The combined rating last year of the head-to-head hour of Raw and Nitro was 8.3. Last week that same hour for Raw only drew 5.1 - a nearly 40 percent overall drop in wrestling viewership. Raw's boost from WCW going off the air is not huge. The last three weeks Nitro was on the air, Raw drew ratings of 5.0, 4.6, and 4.7. The first two weeks without Nitro as competition, Raw drew ratings of 5.7 and 5.4. It's an increase, but the majority of WCW Nitro viewers have turned to non-wrestling programming on Monday nights, not Raw.

The WWF is suffering from a deteriorated image, also. It was one thing for the establishment to make fun of the WWF. It always had, and wrestling fans were used to it. The WWF managed to offset that criticism by seeming to be the rebellious, hot TV trend. The bad pub about content was offset by the good pub about how the WWF had single-handedly saved a TV network (UPN).

A year later, the WWF is linked with the XFL failure. Even NBC's late night variety shows rip on the XFL. Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien make fun of the XFL as if it were a big failure on another network. They aren't even trying to cover for the p.r. debacle it's turned in to. Vince McMahon's image has taken a blow. Has that affected the WWF's image? Maybe a little, maybe a bit more than a little. It certainly hasn't helped.

Vince McMahon now has a chance to rebound in the industry he knows best - pro wrestling. Even if the XFL comes back next year, the first season ends this weekend and he should, for a while at least, be able to turn his attention to the WCW relaunch.

Steve Austin's heel turn hasn't been the spark the WWF anticipated it would be. There aren't any "dream matches" that often result from major turns because there aren't any strong, established babyfaces for him to feud with. The WWF is entering the next PPV with merely a "Smackdown-caliber" main event of Austin & Triple H vs. Kane & Undertaker. That isn't exactly a post-WM blockbuster. The WWF miscalculated badly on Shawn Michaels, counting on him when any one of his friends and associates could have warned them he hadn't changed.

The WWF now has to make the best of what they've got for PPV main events, attempt to establish new top tier stars on TV in the mean time, and begin to bank on WCW eventually being the savior if the WWF runs out of steam.

WCW isn't going to be "as big as the WWF" as long as it airs on Saturday nights only. Without a weeknight primetime slot, WCW will be a secondary promotion when it comes to ratings, buyrates, attendance, and overall revenue. That doesn't mean that WCW cannot be profitable.

Vince McMahon, with the failure of the XFL lingering in the minds of stockholders, is determined to make WCW profitable its first year. That doesn't mean he wants to run it on a shoestring budget, but it does mean he isn't going to rebuild it at all costs, including buying Goldberg out of his contract.

Commend the WWF, though, for not hotshotting after the WCW buyout. The WWF could have more Nitro viewers today had they, immediately upon acquiring the WCW brand and 24 wrestler contracts, hastily booked an invasion angle. Even if the WWF had acquired the big name contracts, it still would have been rushing things to book the angle right away.

Wrestling fans know something the mainstream public doesn't - that the WWF has some monster ratings and buyrates waiting for them a year or so from now if they build up WCW right. A patient rebuilding of WCW should eventually lead to dividends of dream matches with some top WCW stars.

The problem with the prospects of the dream matches dividends right now is that many of them could end up being reruns of previous WWF matches. This week on Raw Big Show gave indications he wants to join Shane McMahon in WCW. There is talk of sending Billy Gunn and D-Lo Brown to WCW.

Meanwhile, the prospects of Goldberg or Ric Flair or Sting facing Steve Austin or The Rock or Triple H a year from now are not strong. Fans are anticipating those as the dream matches right now. Even without Goldberg, Sting, and Flair, there are three strong potential dream match-ups for WrestleMania next year: Scott Steiner vs. Steve Austin, Booker T vs. The Rock, and Triple H vs. Kevin Nash (assuming that when Nash's WCW contract expires early 2002, he will come to terms with WWFE to join WCW at that point). Throw Dallas Page and perhaps Scott Hall into that mix by then, and the situation looks even stronger. The WWF may be gun-shy after the Michaels situation, but Hall is probably a better bet than Michaels right now to be productive.

The WWF has an ace up their sleeve with the eventual interpromotional match-ups. Because of that, they may be willing to take more chances with the WWF roster in the mean time. Also giving "fresh starts" to wrestlers who are lost in the WWF shuffle and have been given one too many aborted pushes (Gunn and Big Show stand out) may be good for both the WWF and WCW.

If, however, the WWF fails to promote WCW effectively, and if WCW fails to be profitable, things could get ugly. If the WWF fails to reach terms with some bigger WCW names, if the WWF books WCW as a pale version of the WWF with no personality of its own (Shane McMahon isn't going to bring back the WCW loyalists who have been turned away in recent years, but once were part of 5.0 ratings for Nitro), and if the WWF staggers in its attempt to build new stars from within, the big bang the WWF is banking on may be a mere sizzle.

Please Recommend or Like This Article on Twitter or Facebook

KELLER BLOG: Paul Heyman alliance with C.M. Punk - where does it go from here?

KELLER'S WWE SUMMERSLAM PPV BLOG: Results and analysis throughout the show including Lesnar vs. Triple H, Cena vs. Punk vs. Show

KELLER: C.M. Punk is not best utilized as a tweener, despite a recent reader poll; he should be all out heel

Comment on this Article Below