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WM31 NEWS: How accurate were Mania betting lines in predicting match outcomes?

Mar 29, 2015 - 10:25:58 PM
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By James Caldwell, PWTorch assistant editor

WM31initial_13.jpg



Post-WM31 Update: The WrestleMania betting odds went 6-2 on predicting the WrestleMania 31 PPV (and pre-show) match outcomes.

The wash was Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns, which was based on Lesnar as a slight -900 favorite once the late money hit and Seth Rollins as a slight -120 favorite to cash in Money in the Bank.

There was also Sheamus as a very slight favorite to win the Andre Battle Royal as a reach on a potential surprise entry. Big Show, who won the match, was a slight +380 underdog.

The one match the betting odds got very wrong was Seth Rollins, who was a strong -2,300 favorite over Randy Orton despite the booking dictating Orton winning to set up Rollins's MITB cash-in later in the show.

As for the accurate predictions...

- Undertaker finished as a strong -4,500 favorite vs. Bray Wyatt.

- John Cena was -9,250 in the U.S. Title match against Rusev.

- Daniel Bryan was -4,500 to win the IC Title ladder match.

- Triple H was -1,500 to beat Sting.

- Tyson Kidd & Cesaro were -2,450 for the WWE Tag Title match.

- A.J. Lee & Paige were -2,000 favorites in the Divas tag match.

[ Thanks to PWTorch contributor David ]

***

Pre-WM31 Sunday Update: Late betting money has arrived on WrestleMania matches, flipping some underdogs to favorites as a potential indicator of who will be booked to win matches at WM31...

- Brock Lesnar is now a -900 favorite to win the WWE World Title match against Roman Reigns. A separate prop bet has Seth Rollins cashing in MITB now as a slight -120 favorite.

The rest of the matches break down:

- Sheamus -210 favorite to win the pre-show battle royal. (Sheamus ended up not being in the battle royal.)

- Tyson Kidd & Cesaro -1200 favorites in the pre-show Tag Title match. (Kidd & Cesaro won.)

- Triple H is now a slight favorite at -750 to beat Sting.

- The Undertaker -4,500 against Bray Wyatt.

- John Cena -6,000 to beat Rusev in the U.S. Title match.

- Daniel Bryan -2,750 to win the IC Title ladder match.

- Seth Rollins -1,200 vs. Randy Orton

- A.J. Lee & Paige -1,200 favorites to win the Divas tag match vs. The Bellas.

[ Thanks to PWTorch contributor David ]

***

Second 3/25 Update: U.S. oddsmaker Bovada in Las Vegas is now listing Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns as a toss-up.

After being taken offline Tuesday, Bovada put Lesnar and Reigns back online as -120 favorites. The odds have slightly changed to Lesnar at -130 and Reigns at -110.

3/25 Update: Since Brock Lesnar announced on ESPN that he has re-signed with WWE, the betting odds have changed on the WrestleMania main event.

Lesnar is now a slight favorite to win at -120 among international betting books. Meanwhile, Bovada in the U.S. has taken down the betting odds on Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns.

Reigns opened as a slight -170 favorite with Bovada and -250 favorite internationally. [ Thanks to PWTorch correspondent David ]

***

Original Report

Preliminary betting odds have been released by both U.S. and international oddsmakers, pointing to potential WrestleMania match outcomes. Both sets of odds match up on expected match outcomes, but the late money this weekend will indicate what the likely outcomes are. (Barring a super-shocker like Brock Lesnar beating The Undertaker last year at WrestleMania, which only a select few knew about.)

Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns

- U.S. Bovada Sportsbook: Reigns is a slight -170 favorite over Lesnar at +130. Last year, Bovada took a wash on Lesnar beating Undertaker, so they're opening very conservatively.

- Int'l Odds: Reigns is a slight -250 favorite over Lesnar.

The Undertaker vs. Bray Wyatt

- U.S. Bovada: Undertaker is a solid -350 favorite over Wyatt at +225.

- Int'l Odds: Taker is a slight -225 favorite over Wyatt.

Sting vs. Triple H

- U.S. Bovada: Sting is a strong -700 favorite over Triple H at +400.

- Int'l Odds: Sting is also a strong -600 favorite over Triple H.

Rusev vs. John Cena

- U.S. Bovada: Cena is a healthy -450 favorite over Rusev at +275.

- Int'l Odds: Cena is a slightly less favorite at -350.

Randy Orton vs. Seth Rollins

- U.S. Bovada: Rollins is a very slight favorite at -140, while Orton is even money.

- Int'l Odds: Rollins is also a slight favorite at -137. Orton is a slight underdog at +100.

IC Title ladder match

- U.S. Bovada: Daniel Bryan is the favorite. Bryan is followed by Dean Ambrose, Dolph Ziggler, and defending champion Bad News Barrett. Way down the list are Luke Harper, Stardust, and R-Truth.

- Int'l Odds: Bryan is also the top favorite. The only difference is the order: Bryan, Ambrose, Barrett, and then Ziggler.

Since WWE commentators made a big deal out of each wrestler's odds of winning during Raw, the official break down from the Bovada listing is:

Bryan (3/2)
Ambrose (9/4)
Ziggler (8/1)
BNB (9/1), close to "WWE Math" of 7/1
Harper (20/1)
Stardust (25/1)
R-Truth (35/1)

Andre Battle Royal

- U.S. Bovada: Damien Mizdow is the favorite, followed by Sheamus. All 20 spots in the battle royal are accounted for, but WWE could add Sheamus as the 21st participant. After Mizdow and Sheamus are Ryback and Mark Henry.

- Int'l Odds: Sheamus is a wild card. Out of the announced participants, Mizdow is the favorite followed by Ryback, Henry, and Adrian Neville, who could enter the battle royal if he wins the NXT tournament at WrestleMania Axxess.

Divas Tag Match

- U.S. Bovada: A.J. Lee & Paige are favorites at -350 over the Bellas at +225.

- Int'l Odds: A.J. & paige are also -333 favorites.

Tag Title pre-show match

- U.S. Bovada: Tyson Kidd & Cesaro are slight favorites to retain the Tag Titles, followed by New Day, Los Matadores, and The Usos in their hometown.

[ Thanks to contributors David and Jimmy ]


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