WWE News WM31 NEWS: How accurate were Mania betting lines in predicting match outcomes?
Mar 29, 2015 - 10:25:58 PM
PLEASE TAKE A MOMENT TO BOOKMARK US & VISIT US DAILY
By James Caldwell, PWTorch assistant editor
Post-WM31 Update: The WrestleMania betting odds went 6-2 on predicting the WrestleMania 31 PPV (and pre-show) match outcomes.
The wash was Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns, which was based on Lesnar as a slight -900 favorite once the late money hit and Seth Rollins as a slight -120 favorite to cash in Money in the Bank.
There was also Sheamus as a very slight favorite to win the Andre Battle Royal as a reach on a potential surprise entry. Big Show, who won the match, was a slight +380 underdog.
The one match the betting odds got very wrong was Seth Rollins, who was a strong -2,300 favorite over Randy Orton despite the booking dictating Orton winning to set up Rollins's MITB cash-in later in the show.
As for the accurate predictions...
- Undertaker finished as a strong -4,500 favorite vs. Bray Wyatt.
- John Cena was -9,250 in the U.S. Title match against Rusev.
- Daniel Bryan was -4,500 to win the IC Title ladder match.
- Triple H was -1,500 to beat Sting.
- Tyson Kidd & Cesaro were -2,450 for the WWE Tag Title match.
- A.J. Lee & Paige were -2,000 favorites in the Divas tag match.
Pre-WM31 Sunday Update: Late betting money has arrived on WrestleMania matches, flipping some underdogs to favorites as a potential indicator of who will be booked to win matches at WM31...
- Brock Lesnar is now a -900 favorite to win the WWE World Title match against Roman Reigns. A separate prop bet has Seth Rollins cashing in MITB now as a slight -120 favorite.
The rest of the matches break down:
- Sheamus -210 favorite to win the pre-show battle royal. (Sheamus ended up not being in the battle royal.)
- Tyson Kidd & Cesaro -1200 favorites in the pre-show Tag Title match. (Kidd & Cesaro won.)
- Triple H is now a slight favorite at -750 to beat Sting.
- The Undertaker -4,500 against Bray Wyatt.
- John Cena -6,000 to beat Rusev in the U.S. Title match.
- Daniel Bryan -2,750 to win the IC Title ladder match.
- Seth Rollins -1,200 vs. Randy Orton
- A.J. Lee & Paige -1,200 favorites to win the Divas tag match vs. The Bellas.
Second 3/25 Update: U.S. oddsmaker Bovada in Las Vegas is now listing Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns as a toss-up.
After being taken offline Tuesday, Bovada put Lesnar and Reigns back online as -120 favorites. The odds have slightly changed to Lesnar at -130 and Reigns at -110.
3/25 Update: Since Brock Lesnar announced on ESPN that he has re-signed with WWE, the betting odds have changed on the WrestleMania main event.
Lesnar is now a slight favorite to win at -120 among international betting books. Meanwhile, Bovada in the U.S. has taken down the betting odds on Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns.
Reigns opened as a slight -170 favorite with Bovada and -250 favorite internationally. [ Thanks to PWTorch correspondent David ]
***
Original Report
Preliminary betting odds have been released by both U.S. and international oddsmakers, pointing to potential WrestleMania match outcomes. Both sets of odds match up on expected match outcomes, but the late money this weekend will indicate what the likely outcomes are. (Barring a super-shocker like Brock Lesnar beating The Undertaker last year at WrestleMania, which only a select few knew about.)
Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns
- U.S. Bovada Sportsbook: Reigns is a slight -170 favorite over Lesnar at +130. Last year, Bovada took a wash on Lesnar beating Undertaker, so they're opening very conservatively.
- Int'l Odds: Reigns is a slight -250 favorite over Lesnar.
The Undertaker vs. Bray Wyatt
- U.S. Bovada: Undertaker is a solid -350 favorite over Wyatt at +225.
- Int'l Odds: Taker is a slight -225 favorite over Wyatt.
Sting vs. Triple H
- U.S. Bovada: Sting is a strong -700 favorite over Triple H at +400.
- Int'l Odds: Sting is also a strong -600 favorite over Triple H.
Rusev vs. John Cena
- U.S. Bovada: Cena is a healthy -450 favorite over Rusev at +275.
- Int'l Odds: Cena is a slightly less favorite at -350.
Randy Orton vs. Seth Rollins
- U.S. Bovada: Rollins is a very slight favorite at -140, while Orton is even money.
- Int'l Odds: Rollins is also a slight favorite at -137. Orton is a slight underdog at +100.
IC Title ladder match
- U.S. Bovada: Daniel Bryan is the favorite. Bryan is followed by Dean Ambrose, Dolph Ziggler, and defending champion Bad News Barrett. Way down the list are Luke Harper, Stardust, and R-Truth.
- Int'l Odds: Bryan is also the top favorite. The only difference is the order: Bryan, Ambrose, Barrett, and then Ziggler.
Since WWE commentators made a big deal out of each wrestler's odds of winning during Raw, the official break down from the Bovada listing is:
Bryan (3/2)
Ambrose (9/4)
Ziggler (8/1)
BNB (9/1), close to "WWE Math" of 7/1
Harper (20/1)
Stardust (25/1)
R-Truth (35/1)
Andre Battle Royal
- U.S. Bovada: Damien Mizdow is the favorite, followed by Sheamus. All 20 spots in the battle royal are accounted for, but WWE could add Sheamus as the 21st participant. After Mizdow and Sheamus are Ryback and Mark Henry.
- Int'l Odds: Sheamus is a wild card. Out of the announced participants, Mizdow is the favorite followed by Ryback, Henry, and Adrian Neville, who could enter the battle royal if he wins the NXT tournament at WrestleMania Axxess.
Divas Tag Match
- U.S. Bovada: A.J. Lee & Paige are favorites at -350 over the Bellas at +225.
- Int'l Odds: A.J. & paige are also -333 favorites.
Tag Title pre-show match
- U.S. Bovada: Tyson Kidd & Cesaro are slight favorites to retain the Tag Titles, followed by New Day, Los Matadores, and The Usos in their hometown.
THE TORCH REACHES MORE COMBAT ENTERTAINMENT FANS THAN ANY OTHER SOURCE
PWTorch editor Wade Keller has covered pro wrestling full time since 1987 starting with the Pro Wrestling Torch print newsletter. PWTorch.com launched in 1999 and the PWTorch Apps launched in 2008.
He has conducted "Torch Talk" insider interviews with Hulk Hogan, The Rock, Steve Austin, Kevin Nash, Scott Hall, Eric Bischoff, Jesse Ventura, Lou Thesz, Jerry Lawler, Mick Foley, Jim Ross, Paul Heyman, Bruno Sammartino, Goldberg, more.
He has interviewed big-name players in person incluiding Vince McMahon (at WWE Headquarters), Dana White (in Las Vegas), Eric Bischoff (at the first Nitro at Mall of America), Brock Lesnar (after his first UFC win).
He hosted the weekly Pro Wrestling Focus radio show on KFAN in the early 1990s and hosted the Ultimate Insiders DVD series distributed in retail stories internationally in the mid-2000s including interviews filmed in Los Angeles with Vince Russo & Ed Ferrara and Matt & Jeff Hardy. He currently hosts the most listened to pro wrestling audio show in the world, (the PWTorch Livecast, top ranked in iTunes)
REACHING 1 MILLION+ UNIQUE USERS PER MONTH
500 MILLION CLICKS & LISTENS PER YEAR
MILLIONS OF PWTORCH NEWSLETTERS SOLD
PWTorch offers a VIP membership for $10 a month (or less with an annual sub). It includes nearly 25 years worth of archives from our coverage of pro wrestling dating back to PWTorch Newsletters from the late-'80s filled with insider secrets from every era that are available to VIPers in digital PDF format and Keller's radio show from the early 1990s.
Also, new exclusive top-shelf content every day including a new VIP-exclusive weekly 16 page digital magazine-style (PC and iPad compatible) PDF newsletter packed with exclusive articles and news.
The following features come with a VIP membership which tens of thousands of fans worldwide have enjoyed for many years...
-New Digital PWTorch Newsletter every week
-3 New Digital PDF Back Issues from 5, 10, 20 years ago
-Over 60 new VIP Audio Shows each week
-Ad-free access to all PWTorch.com free articles
-VIP Forum access with daily interaction with PWTorch staff and well-informed fellow wrestling fans
-Tons of archived audio and text articles
-Decades of Torch Talk insider interviews in transcript and audio formats with big name stars.