TORCH FLASHBACK - WWF, WCW prepare for a fall showdown
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: TORCH Newsletter #350
COVER DATED: August 26, 1995
COVER STORY: WCW strikes with Nitro
By Wade Keller, Torch editor

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This fall, both major U.S. wrestling promotions are going to war with each other. And both will be keeping score of who's ahead. The opening shots have set the stage for battle this fall. There are several categories that will determine who turns out to be the winner in this fall's initial battle in the escalating war between the two promotions.

-- TV Shows. It appeared WCW was going to be the first winner in at least some sense from the start. With the announcement of the new Monday Nitro it became apparent that WCW was going to cost the WWF Raw its top ten slot among cable's top rated shows since it would be splitting the wrestling audience with WCW. That's still the case, but the WWF has scored some initial points on their own.

All the talk of the "new fall season" for the WWF boils down to three specific items: the Fox special, Action Zone changing formats, and a new show being added on Thursday nights. The WWF returning to Fox makes the Monday night battle on cable seem relatively insignificant.

The Fox Wrestlemania special will air in September apparently following the NFL on Sunday. The special will be one hour featuring Lawrence Taylor vs. Bam Bam Bigelow, which should create a strong carryover audience from the preceding football game (assuming it directly follows football) and Shawn Michaels vs. Diesel, which will give the first broadcast network exposure to those two in a main event position. In one fell swoop, Diesel and Michaels will have had more broadcast television exposure than Hulk Hogan this year and because of the quality of the Diesel-Michaels match (not to discount the surprising quality of the L.T.-Bigelow match) the special may turn on some non-fans to the athleticism and charisma of the modern WWF.

The Wrestlemania special is only one in what is slated to be a series of specials. One source says that depending on the ratings it garners, a weekly timeslot has even been discussed. Fox recognizes Raw's strong ratings and since they've struggled to find a show that keeps the NFL audience after football on Sundays, the WWF has a chance to be that show. Fox is the least conservative of the major four networks which makes such talk seem at least plausible.

Back to the cable side of the battle, the WWF is not just sitting back and watching WCW add a show. Jim Ross and Todd Pettengill talked on Sunday about Action Zone undergoing a facelift for the new fall season. No inside word yet on what that format will be. Apparently that change in format is taking place because the current Action Zone format will pretty much move to Thursday nights at 10 p.m. ET. The new Thursday USA show is meant to give the WWF more exposure on a new night to expand the audience, plus it may capture any viewers who don't see Raw because they watch WCW Nitro on Mondays. Early indications are that it will be a repackaging of matches from Raw with current commentary added.

On his live chat on America On-Line after Raw on Aug. 21, McMahon had strong comments regarding WCW going head-to-head on Mondays. He said they "obviously" don't have the health of the entire industry in their minds by splitting the wrestling audience, but said the WWF always welcomes comparisons.

As it stands now, the WWF appears to be the winner even before the battle starts. The Fox exposure puts them over the top. WCW can have a consolation victory if their Nitro ratings take Raw below the 3.0 mark that Raw has stayed above since April. They can be especially happy if on any given week they beat Raw's ratings. Raw's headstart in that timeslot will probably preclude WCW, even with being live every week and having more recognizable mainstream names, from being the consistent winner in that timeslot. WCW, though, doesn't agree and believes because they have Hulk Hogan and Randy Savage that they will be the ratings winner consistently.

-- Talent Changes. While the WWF was cutting back on their roster, WCW was making aggressive moves to add talent. For a while it appeared even with WCW's attempts to sign major names, the WWF was going to come out ahead. WCW was having trouble signing any big new names while the WWF signed Shane Douglas, Dustin Rhodes, and Al Snow.

WCW, though, rebounded last week by acquiring Dean Malenko, Eddy Guerrero, Chris Benoit, Sabu, Disco Inferno, and in the past seven days Ron Simmons, Butch Reed, and perhaps Too Cold Scorpio.

Both promotions made their talent changes with an eye on the bottom line. The WWF cut back on wrestlers they believed to be expendable while also cutting back on other operating expenses. And in acquiring Douglas, Rhodes, and Snow they didn't have to guarantee any money.

WCW also didn't go overboard in spending money with no eye for the bottom line. They are working hard to pull a profit on paper this year and that meant they couldn't sign anyone to guaranteed contracts. Thanks to a push from New Japan, they were able to sign several of the big names above without hefty guarantees. Simmons and Reed would presumably be coming in under similar circumstances.

There was talk of Lex Luger jumping to WCW, but he is remaining in the WWF. Luger not jumping and I.R.S. jumping to WCW are both of minimal consequence.

At this point the WWF is ahead in terms of building up the name value of the new wrestlers and if history is any indication, they will remain ahead in that category. The vignettes of Douglas and Rhodes give the WWF a head start, but WCW will try to catch up quickly with a highlight reel of Sabu on Sept. 4. WCW's danger is not keeping Sabu after his initial match, not to mention losing several other big names after the initial three month commitment is up if the wrestlers are unhappy with their initial pushes.

For match quality sake, WCW will probably be ahead after the first few weeks. At first, with talk of Hogan vs. Big Bubba going up against Bret Hart vs. Shawn Michaels, it seemed as if the WWF was going to be the easy victor. Now, with Jushin Liger vs. Brian Pillman in week one, Sabu vs. Alex Wright in week two, and Dean Malenko vs. Eddy Guerrero and the debut of Chris Benoit and maybe Too Cold Scorpio in future weeks, the quality of wrestling on WCW will blow away the WWF's, especially since Sid vs. Michaels is the finalized main event for the Sept. 11 Raw show that goes head-to-head with Nitro.

-- Incentive. WCW has a burning desire to prove they can compete with the WWF on some objective, measurable scale. Eric Bischoff wants to be behind a show that takes Monday Night Raw out of the top rated cable show listings in trade journals. Hulk Hogan wants to do damage to Vince McMahon and prove that he still has name value that can beat the WWF.

Vince McMahon, meanwhile, has a strong survival instinct. His comments about Nitro and Hogan reflect a readiness to do battle. Although the Fox deal may make him not care as much about the cable ratings battle, chances are he'll still do whatever it takes to win that battle. Putting Shawn vs. Sid on the first head-to-head Raw is a strong match, but not a hot-shot move, which arguably the originally planned Michaels vs. Bret Hart would have been.

The WWF is number one in terms of house show attendance. Their average cable rating is higher, although Bischoff says WCW's overall viewership is higher based on a Nielson compilation. No one currently is dominant in terms of pay-per-view buyrates. The two groups are close enough now that both have within their reach the idea of being a clear-cut number one. Therefore both have an equal incentive to succeed.

-- Intangibles. The advantage here goes to the WWF because they are simply better at what they do. The WWF is better booked, has superior production values, its main event wrestlers are better in the ring than WCW's, and it's owned by one person who has more to lose than anyone in WCW. WCW mitigates that advantage somewhat with whatever name value Hogan has left, TBS's funding, and Bischoff's drive to succeed.

-- Hinge Factors. The outcome of this battle hinges on a few factors on both sides. Hulk Hogan's name recognition will be tested. If it is stronger than expected, WCW has an initial advantage. If it is weaker, WCW may panic and look for excuses within the corporate structure resulting in chaos.

Kevin Sullivan's booking must be strong, not just in terms of executing pet ideas such as the "Dungeon of Doom," but in terms of week to week episodic television that causes people who watch Nitro once to feel that they can't miss next week's program no matter how good Raw is.

The WWF could hotshot angles which could help them in the ratings war but hurt them in terms of pay-per-view buyrates. They could also underestimate WCW by having an arrogant attitude that their market share is strong and be surprised by the appeal of Hogan and/or the new crop of great workers.

By the end of the year, the initial battle will have a winner, but the war will continue. If ratings are up across the board, bookers work harder than ever, wrestlers put on great matches, the WWF gets a regular timeslot on Fox, the two added hours on cable don't cause a glut of overexposure, and pay-per-view buyrates go up, the industry on a whole will be the winner.

[Torch photo credit Wade Keller (c) PWTorch.com]

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