WWE and Netflix release viewership data for first Raw, what does and doesn’t the data indicate, how does it compare to Smackdown’s debut on Fox in 2019

WWE and Netflix released some data regarding viewership for Raw on Monday, Jan. 6, touting that Raw “got off to a strong star” with 4.9 million “Live+!” views globally. It also states that Raw averaged 2.6 million households live and same-night according to the VideoAmp service, which is also the time period Nielsen uses when determining its initial viewership estimates.

Netflix is not using Nielsen, but rather VideoAmp, to determine audience levels. VideoAmp uses a different method than Nielsen to measure the audience, so when comparing Nielsen’s USA Network audience data to VideoAmps Netflix audience data, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

(According a press release on BusinessWire, VideoAmp’s methodology “joins various data inputs like Set-Top Box data (STB) with Smart TV data from ACR providers, which undergo rigorous ingestion, cleansing, de-duplicating, and weighting processes to create a larger, more accurate overall dataset. … By using big data inputs, as opposed to relying on panels … VideoAmp is able to drive greater accuracy and representation of audiences across platforms.”)

The press release does compare viewership of Raw on USA Network to Netflix, though, despite the different methodology of Nielsen and VideoAmp. It notes that 2.6 million  households for Netflix is an increase of 116 percent over Raw’s average in 2024 of 1.2 million households on USA Network. (It’s worth noting we typically report total average viewers rather than total households, as advertisers tend to value knowing how many total people see their ad, not just the number of homes watching, so total viewers is the more common number cited.)

If USA Network and Netflix used the same ratings company to determine viewership, the comparison would be more valuable. Anecdotally, VideoAmp indicated there were 9 percent more viewers for the Golden Globes awards show than Nielsen did, as reported earlier today by Wrestlenomics. Even if that carried over to Raw, it’s still a substantial increase, which is not surprising given Netflix is in more homes than USA Network, WWE and Netflix hyped Monday’s episode of Raw more heavily than a typical Raw in 2024 was hyped, and WWE features big stars who don’t normally appear on Raw and more big main event level matches. That could be the peak number for Raw this year.

Smackdown’s first episode on Fox broadcast network on Oct. 4, 2019, after moving from USA Network on cable, drew 3.880 million, which was up from the prior ten week average of 2.091 million on USA Network. By the second week it dropped t0 2.877 million and by the third week it dropped 2.418 million. The next ten weeks on Fox averaged 2.433 million. So the first episode drew 86 percent more viewers than the prior ten week average, but after the first two weeks, the following ten weeks (excluding one week on FS1) averaged merely 16 percent more viewers. A similar drop off is possible on Netflix, although WWE is entering the peak Royal Rumble-to-WrestleMania season whereas Smackdown on Fox entered the holiday season during that post-debut stretch.

There are other differences that just can’t be reliably accounted for, including the largely different type of audience watching Netflix compared to USA (or Fox, for that matter). Netflix viewers are used to watching content on-demand latercompared to Fox viewers (many of whom don’t have DVR recording or on-demand options), so the 7-day viewership boost on Netflix in theory will be more than it was on Fox just over five years ago in late 2019.

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The global viewership of 4.9 million “Live+1” views is a different data point. The press release notes that views “are the total view-hours for the program divided by the run-time. It is our nearest proxy for average minute audience (AMA) at the household level and does not include co-viewing. Data cut off midnight PST each day.”

If Nielsen says a program averaged 1 million viewers over the course of one hour, that could be indicative, for instance, of 2 million people watching for an average of 30 minutes each. So Netflix, with the “Live+1” data, is trying to replicate that so viewership isn’t “over-counted” by treating someone who watches for five minutes the same as someone who watches for 184 minutes. It’s relevant to advertisers because advertisers aren’t interested at all in hearing about people who watched for only five minutes as part of a “total viewers” number because that those viewers likely saw no commercials. Advertised want a ballpark figure on the average viewership at any given time, regardless of whether from one hour to the next they’re the same viewers or new viewers replacing exiting viewers.

All in all, the 2.6 million households numbers translates roughly 3.5 million viewers using the Nielsen estimates of viewers-per-home. That’s not too far off from the 3.880 million viewers Smackdown drew on Fox on their premiere on Oct. 4, 2019. Also, Fox is available in every home with cable or an antennae – around 120 million – compared to around 85 million homes subscribing to Netflix in the U.S. So Fox would logically bring more viewers than Netflix for a heavily-hyped premiere, but again there are other differences such as Raw airing on Mondays compared to Smackdown on Tuesdays, Smackdown having substantially more viewers on USA Network before the move to Fox compared to Raw’s viewership on USA Network before the move to Netflix. Also, Fox advertised Smackdown on NFL telecasts, while Netflix is advertising Raw to its built-in audience on its app’s launch screen.

Nevertheless, this first viewership for Raw is roughly in line with a reasonable expectation given all of the factors listed above. It’s neither likely to be (reasonably) seen as a great disappointment nor well above (reasonable) expectations. That said, network execs and pro wrestling promoters can sometimes talk themselves into thinking viewership is going to be higher than is realistic. WWE and Netflix didn’t state any expectations publicly leading into the premiere.

It’s not known how much data Netflix and WWE will release in future weeks, nor whether we will gain access to any VideoAmp data through other TV industry sources once that information circulates.