AEW’s future is at a pivot point and Tony Khan has big decision to make regarding new TV rights deal

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AEW’s current television partner Warner Bros. Discovery is currently in the midst of tumultuous negotiations with the NBA over television rights and it looks very likely that things will not go WBD’s way. This situation, though slightly complicated, could provide a huge opportunity for Tony Khan to make some bold moves on AEW’s behalf.

First, it’s important to understand the situation WBD currently finds itself in.

The NBA successfully renegotiated its “A-Package” which includes top tier games and the NBA Finals with Disney/ABC to the tune of $2.6 billion per year. The league has also reached a $1.8 billion per year deal with Amazon Prime for the “C-Package” of lesser tier games along with the In-season and Play-in tournaments. That leaves the “B package” (second tier games and All Star weekend) for WBD to negotiate for except for one small thing.

The exclusive negotiating window passed and Comcast, parent company of NBC, swooped in with an obscene $2.5 billion per year offer. WBD CEO David Zaslav pointed out in his quarterly earnings call a couple weeks ago that WBD has the right to match any offer. The problem for WBD is that matching an offer isn’t as simple as it would seem. It’s not just a dollar for dollar match. They have to match the value of Comcast’s offer which includes access to the NBC broadcast network as well as regional NBC sports networks.

Experts estimate any matching offer would have to be at least $2.8 billion per year. Given that the company is already carrying $40 million in debt, that pricey figure is significantly more than Zaslav is likely willing to pay for a product he’s privately expressed is overvalued. That means WBD is very likely going to lose its most important sports property, leaving Zaslav and company in quite the predicament.

Losing the NBA would drastically impact the carriage fees, the money cable and satellite providers pay to carry TBS and TNT. Right now, they get an industry-high $3 per subscriber. Without the NBA, that number will come down. WBD has to find a way to keep it from coming down too much.

In recent days, as the NBA moved to finalize those deals with Disney, Amazon, and NBC (Per Puck once those deals are reached WBD will have five days to make a matching offer), CNBC reported that Zaslav had made peace with the NBA’s departure and begun to make plans for their absence. It was reported that WBD struck deals with the NCAA for College Football Playoff games and with NASCAR for certain races and its in-season tournament. Given that the CFP is one week annually and NASCAR is very niche, WBD is going to need more than that.

That’s where AEW comes in.

There was reporting this week that Tony Khan was not happy with current offer WBD put on the table. That’s perfectly fine. That offer predates the potential or actual loss of the NBA which is going to alter WBD’s approach. The way I see it, Tony needs to take a two-pronged approach to this new deal. The exclusive negotiating window between AEW and WBD is reportedly expiring in July. Tony needs to use that to his advantage and diversify how his product gets to consumers. Given WBD’s instability (Zaslav is reportedly interested in acquiring CBS once that division is spun off after its troubled parent company Paramount is purchased in a forthcoming sale, a move that would require a lot of money) getting all of his eggs out of the one basket would be prudent.

Having deals with two separate partners will not only give AEW some protection if things go south for WBD, it’s also financially lucrative for AEW.

Tony should negotiate a new deal with WBD for the rights to Dynamite and the PPVs. That deal should include getting the PPVs off the much-maligned Bleacher Report app and on the Max streaming service especially since it’s going to be bundled with Disney+ and Hulu in the fall. Any association with the entertainment behemoth can only be beneficial. Once he can, he should open negotiations to move Collision to a streamer like Amazon Prime. He can sweeten the deal with the quarterly Battle of the Belts specials. He could pare down the PPV schedule and make those events the televised mini-PPVs they were supposed to be when they were first announced.

Since WBD doesn’t seem interested in ROH, maybe Tony can even make that brand part of a potential Amazon deal something that would hopefully incentivize Tony to take it a little more seriously – perhaps even handing the creative reigns to someone like Bryan Danielson – so he’s not spread so thin. Ultimately, Tony has an opportunity to secure the future of AEW for years to come. He needs to seize that opportunity and make the most out of it.

CHECK OUT THE NEW EPISODE OF “AEW CONVERSATION CLUB” with Joel Dehnel & Gregg Kanner

In this week’s episode…

Potential offer from WBD for renewal
Tony Khan “very open” to additional hour of TV
MJF return at Double or Nothing
Mercedes Mone return match
Adam Copeland fractured tibia
Bump in Dynamite rating
Analysis of AEW Dynamite
Emails and trivia

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OR CHECK THIS OUT AT PROWRESTLING.NET: Tony Khan open to regular three-hour blocks of AEW and additional programming hours