VIP Guest Editorial
Submitted by Cabledude

Signs Pointing to More than 1.2 Million WM29 PPV Buys

- Availability on More Outlets: For the first time, WWE is making the WrestleMania PPV feed available on the XBox video game console and Samsung Smart TVs, with the potential of adding more alternative distribution platforms before the live event. In theory, this added reach should yield more PPVs than last year.

- TV Ratings/Programmable Hours: What we learned from last year is that TV ratings don't necessarily translate to fewer PPV buys, as last year's build-up with two-hour Raws
was not as highly-watched as this year. Last year - 3.16 average rating in the four weeks leading up to WM28 vs. 3.20 this year in the four weeks leading up to WM29. But, men 18-49 were better last year - 2.46 vs. 2.12 in the four weeks leading up to Mania.

However, in the three-hour RAW era this means that WWE had more programmable hours in which to promote this year's WrestleMania, in addition to programs such as Main Event and Saturday Morning Slam which were not around last year. You could argue that this all is just more red meat for the WWE die-hard, though marketing execs would point to these added hours as more opportunity to drive home the WrestleMania 29 tune-in message.

- The Rock is Bigger Than Ever: By headlining three major release motion pictures (Snitch, GI Joe: Retaliation, and Pain & Gain, all of which were promoted with heavy advertising budgets during this WrestleMania season), it can be argued that The Rock increased his overall Q score this year vs. last and became a much bigger star all-around, thus in theory inflating the possible buy-ability of this year's WrestleMania. If one of the main reasons The Rock was brought in was to attract more mainstream fans to WWE's big annual show, this Sunday will truly be the measuring stick given the man's three-month visibility in major release studio films.

- Social Media Blueprint: WWE has spent the past year truly beefing up its social media presence with both Twitter and Tout, which they invested in. This same kind of effort didn't exist last year, or ever. Most marketing people would point to this as a huge advantage towards increasing the buy-rate. I remain skeptical that this has little if any effect (other than satiating the existing, rabid fanbase), though Nielsen did recently release a report that said Twitter activity can lead to about a 1 percent increase in TV ratings if a show or property is hot and also has a huge paid spend put behind it.

Signs Pointing to Fewer than 1.2 Million Buys

- A Non-Fresh Main Event: Rock vs. Cena I was positioned as a "dream match" and a "one-time-only" event. The feud even got its own USA & NBC one-hour special that aired the week of the show. The novelty of seeing these two lock horns was fresh, new. That's not there anymore. We've seen it before and there was really no major controversy coming out of Rock-Cena I (though WWE has tried mightily to weave together a compelling Year Two storyline) and both characters are pretty much the same (no true heel). Also, Rock-Cena I wasn't exactly a mat classic that true hardcore fans would be that interested in seeing again.

- Subpar Buys for Feb. PPV: 221,000 PPV buys for Elimination Chamber (Rock vs. Punk II) didn't set the world on fire (though bigger than the 2012 equivalent). WrestleMania this year (as most years) will have to rely on its existing brand name to carry the load.

- Pricing: An increase in price of $5 from last year’s event, though it might not seem like much, could deter new or existing viewers from buying. It's worth keeping in mind that consumer spending in the U.S. isn't exactly strong. In January, the disposable income of households in the U.S. economy, after taking into consideration inflation and taxes, dropped four percent - the biggest single month drop in 20 years. Though not an apples-to-apples comparison, the March 16 UFC 158 PPV (built around a huge personal vendetta between the main-eventers) did about 1.0 million buys at a price point of $44.95 (about $15 less than WrestleMania). This will be a good test to see how much WWE fans will tolerate a PPV price increase, and most importantly - if such price increase might lead to less overall buys.

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